VBlogG

With the 48th pick of the NBA Draft two weeks ago, the Warriors selected Arizona point guard Nico Mannion, whom they signed to a two-way contract. It wasn’t a big story, because second-round picks who sign two-way contracts seldom are. It did, however, represent a huge shift in circumstances for a 19-year-old who, for whatever it’s worth, produced one of the smoothest highlight packages among prospects.

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Heading into the 2019-20 college season, Mannion was the sixth-ranked prospect by RSCI (James Wiseman was first). While he didn’t boast elite size, Mannion was a skilled performer who played with flair on the high school circuit. He was expected to compensate for any deficiencies with an abundance of skill and confidence. When the season started, Mannion was a projected top-10 pick in several mock drafts (and No. 17 in The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie’s) and his strong play early on helped keep the buzz going (51 percent from the field, 48 percent from 3-point range over his first eight games).

In an ESPN mock draft in December 2019, Mannion was ranked as the seventh pick. He slid a bit over the next couple of months but was still ranked No. 10 in a February mock draft.

Though a lot of time has passed, literally and metaphorically, since February, Mannion only played seven college basketball games after that point. What happened in those games was enough to finally, completely tank his draft stock. If you believe the mock drafts (and there were others that showed similar results) to be a proxy for NBA opinion, this is an astounding drop, especially since those seven games weren’t especially bad for Mannion (107 points on 87 shots). Perhaps you could say that those seven games didn’t do enough to disconfirm the troubling trend. Ultimately, Mannion ended his season at a 39 percent overall field goal mark, a result that can give teams pause. In retrospect, it seems pretty clear that, had Mannion endured a season-ending situation like Wiseman’s, the Warriors never would have had the opportunity to draft him outside the first round. In that hypothetical, Mannion probably goes top 10.

So what happened exactly? How did Mannion go from a top-flight prospect to just barely getting drafted? And more to the point, from the Warriors’ perspective, does the answer to that question indicate that they got a steal at pick 48?

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First, let’s go back to Arizona’s 2019-20 preseason. Mannion was recruited to be part of an exciting, 4-out offensive attack. Before the first game was played, major injuries to guards Terry Armstrong and Brandon Williams changed the calculus. Suddenly, the freshman Mannion was to be the lead playmaker on Day 1, which could have its benefits for his growth and his draft stock. Though he flourished initially, the downside predictably arrived. Not only was Mannion scouted and swarmed, but coach Sean Miller returned to his old conservative ways. The Wildcats shifted to something of a plodding double-post offense, anathema in the modern NBA and increasingly less popular in college. When I go through Mannion’s film, I see issues for him to clean up, but the main takeaway is just how little space there is on the floor.

For comparison, here is Mannion with a spread floor:

Here is Mannion when the paint is packed:

I can’t tell you how many times Mannion saw two help defenders in the paint when he had the ball, but it was the norm at Arizona.

Mannion might not qualify for my, “Fat is potential in disguise” rule, but he could qualify for my, “Bad coaching is potential in disguise” theory. That’s not to say that Miller is a bad coach, per se. I don’t think I’m qualified to make that judgment as someone who mostly watches NBA games. I can say, however, that Miller’s offense looks nothing like what players are expected to do at the NBA level, and appears to do guards few favors at the college level.

According to Mannion’s high school coach Charlie Wilde, Mannion was starting to figure out how to work within its constraints.

“He never complained about it,” Wilde told me. “He found a way to be able to use his abilities with it. And with that NCAA Tournament (coming), he felt like he had really figured it out. He called me and said, ‘I’m going to have a great tournament. I’ve got this figured out. I know when to attack, when not to attack in this system.’ He just felt good about it. And then everything got shut down.”

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Was Mannion ready to turn the corner? Maybe. His Feb. 29 game at UCLA showed a player on the cusp of takeover mode in the second half. If Mannion can get his offense going on the Warriors, his elite vision should be of tremendous benefit. To quote Wilde, “His ability to get to the basket will be better on the Warriors. Defenses are going to think he can’t score, then he’s going to score and they’re going to have to do something about it.”

It’s also possible that Mannion, like most second-round picks, was accurately red-flagged. We shall see. New teammate Steph Curry, who saw a younger Mannion at Curry’s Under Armour camp, is expressing confidence in the kid’s future.

“I talked to him right after the draft,” Curry said. “Sky’s the limit for him. Kind of wise beyond his years. Excited about the learning curve for him. He doesn’t lack confidence at all. He knows he belongs.”

Mannion has been a high-level athlete all through adolescence, feted for the big stage. Last season represented a detour and how he responds to the disappointment will define the rest of his career. The Warriors likely represent an ideal place of rebirth, especially if Mannion can learn under the wing of Curry. If he does and finally gives Steph some help in running the offense, the Warriors can principally thank Mannion, and secondarily thank Sean Miller.

(Photo: Jeff Chiu / Associated Press)

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